Israeli officials think Hezbollah disarray is hindering retaliation.(CNN NEWS)_
For months, Israeli officials have anticipated that Hezbollah would fire thousands of rockets and missiles toward Israel in the opening days of a major escalation in the long-running conflict between the two sides.
Israel’s Iron Dome system would be overwhelmed. Israel’s major airport could be severely damaged. And hundreds of thousands could be left without power.
But as Israel escalated the conflict over the last 11 days, beginning with the explosion of thousands of Hezbollah pagers and culminating in the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, none of that has come to pass.
Hezbollah has fired several hundred rockets per day in response, but it has come nowhere close to delivering that type of major retaliation Israeli officials had been anticipating — at least not yet.
Why no large-scale response? Israeli officials believe that an overwhelming Hezbollah response has not materialized for two key reasons: Nearly all of Hezbollah’s senior commanders have been killed, leaving its command-and-control structure in disarray; and Israeli airstrikes have debilitated much of the operational infrastructure Hezbollah would use to carry out significant retaliation.
Israeli officials said Hezbollah’s command structure has been decimated and its organization is in disarray. And a round of 1,600 airstrikes on Monday — followed by additional strikes in recent days — have struck weapons depots and missile launch positions that could have been used to carry out large-scale, simultaneous attacks.
Still, Israeli officials are well-aware that Hezbollah can and likely will regroup. One Israeli official acknowledged that Israel knows it has not taken out Hezbollah’s entire capabilities and that its senior commanders are replaceable.
Israel has taken advantage of what it believes to be internal chaos within Hezbollah over the last 24 hours, carrying out dozens of airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where the group has a significant presence.
The question now is what comes next: Israeli generals have said they are preparing for a ground offensive into Lebanon, but whether one unfolds has yet to be decided.
And how Hezbollah regroups and what direction it receives from Iran also remain to be seen.
